LME outperforms SHFE in metals, LME tin up nearly 4%, COMEX silver and LME zinc lead gains, coke and silicon metal down over 2% [[SMM Midday Review]]

SMM May 6 News:

Metal Market:

As of the midday close, domestic base metals showed mixed performance. SHFE copper and SHFE nickel rose by 0.41% and 0.7%, respectively. SHFE tin edged up, while SHFE zinc fell by 0.18%. SHFE aluminum dropped by 0.55%, and SHFE lead declined by 0.89%.

In addition, alumina fell by 1.32%, lithium carbonate by 1.3%, silicon metal by 2.46%, and polysilicon by 1.89%.

The ferrous metals series also showed mixed performance. Iron ore rose by 0.57%, rebar fell by 0.32%, HRC edged up, and stainless steel also edged up. In the coking coal and coke sector, coking coal fell by 1.94%, and coke by 2.65%.

In the overseas metal market, as of 11:42, all overseas base metals rose. LME zinc rose by 3.75%, LME zinc by 1.8%, LME lead by 0.54%, LME copper by 1.12%, LME aluminum by 0.72%, and LME nickel by 1.42%.

In precious metals, as of 11:42, COMEX gold rose by 1.45%, and COMEX silver by 2.47%. Domestically, SHFE gold rose by 1.3%, and SHFE silver by 0.28%.

As of the midday close, the most-traded contract for the Europe Containerized Freight Index rose by 0.72%, closing at 1307.5 points.

As of 11:42 on May 6, some midday futures market movements:

》SMM Metal Spot Prices on May 6

Spot and Fundamentals

Tin: As of the midday close today, the most-traded tin contract SN2506 on the SHFE closed at 261,960 yuan/mt, up 0.06% from the previous settlement price. The intraday trading range was 257,800-262,000 yuan/mt. Trading volume and open interest slightly decreased, with cautious market sentiment. The most-traded LME tin contract was temporarily quoted at $31,850/mt, up 3.14%. Fluctuating tariff policies: The US Department of Commerce signaled "potential phased adjustments to some tariffs," but the risk of tariff increases in areas such as AI chips and consumer electronics remains, keeping market concerns about tin's downstream export demand persistent... 》Click for details

Macro Front

Domestic:

[Domestic travel during this year's Labour Day holiday reached 314 million person-trips, up 6.4% YoY] During the 2025 Labour Day holiday, various regions launched a diverse array of tourism products, cultural activities, and people-friendly initiatives to meet the public's diversified and personalized needs. According to calculations by the data center of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, a total of 314 million domestic trips were made nationwide during the five-day holiday, up 6.4% YoY. Total domestic tourism spending reached 180.269 billion yuan, up 8.0% YoY.

[Inbound and outbound travel during this year's Labour Day holiday reached 10.896 million person-trips, up 28.7% YoY] According to the National Immigration Administration, during this year's Labour Day holiday, border control authorities nationwide facilitated a total of 10.896 million inbound and outbound trips by Chinese and foreign nationals, with a daily average of 2.179 million person-trips, up 28.7% from the same period last year. The peak single-day volume occurred on May 3, reaching 2.297 million person-trips. Among them, 5.778 million person-trips were made by mainland residents, up 21.2% YoY; 4.003 million person-trips by Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan residents, up 37.1% YoY; and 1.115 million person-trips by foreigners, up 43.1% YoY. Among inbound foreigners, 380,000 entered under visa-free policies, up 72.7% YoY. A total of 456,000 inbound and outbound transportation vehicles (ships, trains, and vehicles) were inspected, up 18.1% YoY.

[Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index (Services PMI) fell to 50.7 in April] The Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index (Services PMI) for April, released today, stood at 50.7, down 1.2 percentage points from March, marking the lowest level in seven months while remaining in expansion territory.

[PBOC's open market operations resulted in a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan] The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted 405 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today, with an interest rate of 1.50%, unchanged from the previous operation. With 1,087 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos maturing today, this resulted in a net withdrawal of 682 billion yuan.

► The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar in the interbank foreign exchange market on May 6 was 7.2008 yuan per US dollar.

US Dollar:

As of 11:42, the US dollar index edged up 0.02% to 99.82. The Fed is set to conclude its two-day meeting on Wednesday, with markets widely expecting the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged, following a robust March employment report released last Friday. Currently, markets imply only a 37% chance of a Fed rate cut in June, down from 64% a month ago. Both Goldman Sachs and Barclays have pushed back their rate cut expectations from June to July. Markets will also focus on comments from Fed Chairman Powell on Wednesday, seeking clues about the Fed's interest rate path. While the Fed will undoubtedly keep rates unchanged on Wednesday, this could be the last Fed meeting where such a confident prediction can be made, as US tariffs cast a shadow of uncertainty over the economic outlook. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said on Monday that Trump's agenda of tariffs, tax cuts, and deregulation would collectively drive long-term investment in the US economy.

Data:

[Global manufacturing PMI continued to decline in April, increasing downward pressure on the economy] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) released today (May 6) the global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for April. The index has been operating in contraction territory below 50% for two consecutive months, indicating increased downward pressure on the global economy. The global manufacturing PMI for April was 49.1%, down 0.5 percentage points MoM, marking the second consecutive monthly decline. Analysts believe that the continued weakness in global manufacturing reflects the pressure on the global economy. Disturbed by the US tariff hikes, the downward risks to the global economy are gradually increasing.

Data to be released today include the final SPGI Services PMI for the UK in April, the leading indicator for the global industrial production cycle turning point in April (time unspecified), Canada's March trade balance, Canada's April IVEY seasonally adjusted PMI, the final Eurozone April Services PMI, the Eurozone March PPI MoM, the US March trade balance, and the US April Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. Also note: The European Central Bank will hold its Central Banking Forum until May 7. On May 6, the Dalian Commodity Exchange will have a call auction for all contracts from 08:55-09:00 AM; night session trading will resume that evening. The Seoul Stock Exchange will be closed on May 6 for Children's Day.

Crude Oil:

As of 11:42, crude oil futures rose, with US crude up 1.58% and Brent crude up 1.58%.

Oil prices hit a four-year low in the previous session, as OPEC's decision to accelerate production increases heightened market concerns about oversupply, while US tariffs fueled demand concerns. OPEC agreed on Saturday to accelerate production increases for the second consecutive month, with oil output set to rise by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June. OPEC said in a statement on the 3rd that eight OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries decided to increase daily production by 411,000 bpd starting from June this year. This will mark the second consecutive month that these countries have increased oil production at a higher-than-expected rate. Leaders in the oil and gas industry have stated that despite the most severe market uncertainty in decades, oil production in the US Gulf of Mexico will continue to grow.

Barclays lowered its Brent crude oil price forecast for 2025 by $4 to $70 per barrel on Monday and set its 2026 price forecast at $62 per barrel, citing "a bumpy fundamental outlook" due to escalating trade tensions and OPEC's adjustments to its production strategy. (Webstock Inc.)

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Spot Market Overview:

► Inventory increased significantly after the holiday; suppliers actively lowered prices, and spot premiums declined. [SMM South China Copper Spot]

► Transaction performance was moderate after the holiday; gains in spot premiums and discounts were limited. [SMM North China Copper Spot]

► Ningbo Zinc: Limited shipments in Ningbo; downstream just-in-time restocking. [SMM Midday Review]

► Restocking sentiment warmed after the holiday; SHFE tin prices rose slightly. [SMM Tin Midday Review]

Midday reviews for other metal spot prices will be updated later. Please refresh to view~